Low chance of 5 Trillion dollar Economy by 2024-25…

Low chance of 5 Trillion dollar Economy by 2024-25…

            I do not wish to extensively go through introduction and then the premise of our economic situation and its corresponding needs of present day India. My previous blogs sufficiently and extensively point that out. I will just get to the point here and make a generalised assertion here.

1. The much awaited 100 lakh crore investment plan by the NaMo government got its blue print announced on December 31, 2019. It is very modest and bluntly speaking, will not boost the growth rate much.
2. Unless there is Global cyclical economic upturn, the Indian economy will find it hard even to reach 6.5% GDP growth rate.
3. The above mediocre investment blueprint put into action, will just about sustain a tepid 5% growth rate and will not add any inflation to the present 3%.
4. I would hesitantly, but sadly pronounce that unless an Economic miracle occurs, the hope of 5 trillion Dollar economy by 2024/25 is not possible.
5. The best case scenario analysis as of 01/01/2020 is India would be at 4.7 trillion Dollar GDP by 2025 March. So at the time 2024 general elections it would be probably hovering around 4.3 trillion USD GDP.  Way short of the goal and might have electoral consequences for the BJP, unless something incredible is not done.
6. The only saving grace would be that, the GDP growth rate will not fall further and will stabilize soon above 5%. If only BJP was smart enough to get the rupee appreciate on a colossal scale, the Economy would reach 5 trillion dollar regardless. The effect on the exporters could be minimized by just cutting taxes on exports and giving them big incentives. But I just do not see such aptitude in the NaMo ministry.

Honourable Prime Minister Narendra Modi, I will not expect a miracle in the BUDGET session 2020, so all I can request is please atleast do some basic capitalism and get the basics right as far as free market economy is concerned.