Sunday, September 15, 2019

Something big seems to be on the anvil…


Something big seems to be on the anvil…

            There are three things that are happening with Narendra Modi’s governance 2.0 model that are just too complex to comprehend for the public.

  1. Economic Slowdown and the government’s reaction (2019).
  2. Silence on Pakistan - post nullification of 370/35a in J & K.
  3. Completely calm and composed in regards to Internal MSM saboteurs and confidence in the process of much needed INC Eco System cleansing.

With the Real GDP growth rate of 5% and with 3.5% inflation rate, India will not reach 5 trillion USD status by 2024-25. Everyone knows this basic mathematical fact and more so the executive in the Government. The government believes that economic reform and 100 lakh crore rupees investment will help reach the goal. They are right, but the question is timing and financial source.
Just one or 2 reforms will not do, it has to be much more being both qualitatively and quantitatively extensive. PM Modi and his FM are so sure about getting multiple reforms passed quickly that I am personally amused. Does that mean they already have a complete list of reforms drafted and ready to be passed? It has to be; otherwise the confidence in moving quickly cannot arise.
Now the funding for 100 lakh crore investments is another big question that public finds hard to comprehend. The FM recently promised to front load 100 lakh crore investments and even promised funding that instantaneously. How is that possible? Unless, Government has found a mega source outside the Tax net this is not possible.

The response of the Government for all the silly taunts of Pakistan post nullification of 370 in J & K is truly remarkable. The response seems to be almost borderline radio silence. The mere fact that something so spectacular was pulled of by PM Modi within 100 days is by itself an achievement, but yet the government seems to be behaving as if this is only the tip of the iceberg. What do they have in store? Mr. Modi just said that first 100 days was only a trailer and that means nullification of article 370 after 70 years was not even the full picture. That means there are very big course of action still on the shelf.

No concrete action has been initiated against Internal MSM saboteurs apart from some movement against NDTV and few others. But nothing has radically changed with their behaviour and the Government seems very calm and composed as if things are exactly where it wants it to be. That means the wheels of action has already begun to rotate and government is assured that the wheel is unstoppable.
 The confidence in which the government is taking on the INC ecosystem is truly an awesome sight. This confidence can only come if NaMo totally knows the internal dynamics of INC and is certain of victory.

In all this high tide, it is very difficult what’s happening inside. We will find out once the tide recedes, what exactly has been the impact. The first tide will recede by the early 2020 and so, technically India should be able to see the impact by March 2020.

1 comment:

  1. So, both BJP governments live to fight another day. As I had suggested, trends stabilized late : 40 in Haryana for BJP, and 160 for BJP+, with Shiv Sena downgraded to almost NCP status.

    The common theme to local governance, local infrastructure improvement, agrarian issues, removal of bottlenecks in the economy is LOGISTICS (or ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY/GEOGRAPHIC INTELLIGENCE). Consider the following conceptual diagram of the layout of population in India :

    Villages ---- Small towns ---- Medium towns ---- Cities/Metros

    To put it as simply as possible, if we (for instance) want to supply piped water to every last person, we need to figure out the optimal layout of the hydel infrastructure we need, and then try to further reduce the costs. Almost certainly, during the exercise, we'll learn new things about possible logistical and governance improvements to further stimulate economic activity; as well as ways of improving the 'living spaces' of the bulk of citizens (reconfiguration of slum or irregular colonies, building green areas, drainages etc). Point is that this is a unifying perspective on a variety of problems.

    More thoughts later.

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