Delhi Pseudo State staring down the Political barrel…

Delhi Pseudo State staring down the Political barrel…

            AAP is the ruling party at the state level in Delhi. They did well in 2013 VS, poorly in 2014 LS, did very well in 2015 VS, later lost MCD elections, did horribly in 2019 LS and are most likely are not going to do good in 2020.

            What are/were the strengths of the political outfit known as AAP? Based on 2015 spectacular AAP vote victory in the Delhi Vidhana Sabha, these are some broadly simplified statistics.

AAP is a Left leaning party ideologically and through its actions. Their voter constituency contained the following:

1. Disenchanted BJP voters (20%).
2. Huge chunk of INC voters (60%).
3. Novelty/Swing factor (20%).
4. (left) Anti BJP + (right) Anti Congress voters (20%).

BJP is a Right leaning party ideologically and centrist in nature and its voter constituents are as follows:

1. Core BJP votes (70%).
2. Anti Congress Votes (20%).
3. Anti Incumbency/TINA votes (10%).

INC is a left leaning party ideologically and centrist in nature and its voter constituents are:

1. Core INC votes (50%).
2. Anti BJP left votes (30%).
3. Anti Incumbency/TINA votes (20%).

What does 2020 entail for AAP?

            The best case scenario for AAP starts with a 30 seat reduction in its 67 seats.

1. The Disenchanted BJP voters of 2015 are mostly back with BJP. (-15%)
2. INC has somewhat clawed back a significant share of its voters back. (-30%)
3. There is not much of novelty factor in 2020 and also some anti incumbency factor is undeniable (10%).
4. Anti BJP/Congress votes are in serious vacuity for AAP. Thanks to the insane strategy of consolidation of fringe Left/Secular/Minority votes of the INC in the last 3 months; the AAP would have almost zilch Anti BJP left ideological votes and counter consolidation of anti INC votes that would incur to BJP. These factors are unknown and one can conservatively estimate a loss. (- 20%)

So, technically AAP starts with a loss of 75% vote share but it is excluding the new AAP Core vote (20%) + pro incumbency votes (20%).

      AAP is looking at a net loss of 35% vote share compared to the 2015 VS elections, BJP a net gain of 10% and INC a net gain of 25% vote share.

Arithmetically the 2015 VS AAP vote share was 54.3%, BJP 32.3%, INC 9.7% and in 2020 elections the vote share would be approximately: AAP 38 %, BJP 36% and INC 13%. But this arithmetic does not take into consideration the amount of vote share the others would have and exact percentage of return of anti BJP left votes to the INC. So, INC could range from anywhere from 13% to 21%.

Any calculation that takes both political realities & electoral realities believe the best case scenario for AAP would be:

Party	Seats	Margin of error
AAP	36	+/- 4
BJP	24	+/-6
INC	8	+/- 4
SAD + Others	2	+/-1

            Conventionally and conservatively calculating, this is the best case scenario of 40 seats at best for AAP, but if INC is given the best case scenario it would be 15 seats for INC and best case scenario for BJP is 35 seats as of January 8, 2020.

            An unknown amount of counter consolidation of votes for the BJP has happened since November 2019. If this even adds an extra 3% to the BJP vote share the BJP as a Party would itself cross 40 seats.

            But only since AAP is the top dog of Delhi VS, its likely even though AAP will suffer a huge fall in seats, they would yet form a coalition Government along with INC in Delhi.

            So, in all likelihood, Delhi will have exceedingly weakened AAP back in government in 2020, but with a high chance of systematic accumulation of anti-incumbency. So, in all probability AAP’s electoral effectiveness would be severely eroded in the next few years. But it looks like they will live to fight another day…